Flow Predictability

Definition & formula

(committed objectives : delivered objectives) / time period

How well teams deliver against objectives. In common parlance, this is say:do ratio.

The Socratic view

The idea of Flow Predictability is sound. Knowing how reliably the organization hits its targets helps planners plan more realistically. But the work of manually analyzing commitments versus delivery, plotting that ratio over time, and using the results to inform future planning isn’t realistically sustainable. Moreover, seeing that you have poor Flow Predictability is one thing; knowing how to improve it is another thing altogether.

Background

This metric originated from the Flow Framework, which provides a set of principles and practices to optimize the flow of value in software development. The concept of Flow Predictability gained traction in recent years as organizations sought to increase the reliability of their delivery.

Use cases

Flow Predictability is used in software engineering to evaluate the predictability of delivery and to enhance planning processes. It is primarily used by development teams, project managers, and stakeholders involved in software development projects. This metric helps teams understand their ability to consistently meet objectives and deliver value. By tracking Flow Predictability, teams can identify bottlenecks, improve resource allocation, and make informed decisions to optimize their delivery processes. It enables teams to set realistic expectations and align their efforts towards achieving predictable outcomes.

Evaluating the metric

To evaluate Flow Predictability, it is important to consider both good and bad values. A good value for this metric indicates that the team consistently delivers against their committed objectives within the defined time period. It signifies a high level of predictability and reliability in the team's delivery process. On the other hand, a bad value suggests that the team struggles to meet their commitments, resulting in a lower predictability in their delivery.

A good Flow Predictability value demonstrates the effectiveness of the software engineering team in meeting their objectives consistently. It indicates that the team has a strong understanding of their capabilities, realistic planning processes, and efficient execution. Conversely, a poor Flow Predictability value highlights potential inefficiencies, lack of coordination, or unrealistic expectations within the software engineering team. It serves as a signal for the team to identify areas for improvement, such as refining their planning processes, addressing bottlenecks, or enhancing collaboration to enhance their flow predictability.